Can We Sustain 9.7 Billion by 2050 Without Destroying the Earth?

As we face the daunting challenge of climate change, the question of food security looms large. With the global population projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, we'll need to increase food production by 70% to meet the demand. But can we do so without exacerbating the climate crisis or depleting our natural resources? Let's explore how we can nourish the world sustainably in the face of climate change.

Hungry people stand in line for food, a stark reminder of the global food crisis that is expected to worsen in the coming decades. Ylyth Magazine AIPix. 2023

The Triple Challenge: Food, Land, and Emissions Gap

The Food Gap. By 2050, we'll need to produce 56% more food compared to 2010. This surge in demand is driven by population growth and changing diets as rising incomes lead to increased consumption of resource-intensive, animal-based foods.

The Land Gap. To produce enough food, we might need an additional 593 million hectares of agricultural land, nearly twice the size of India. However, expanding agricultural land could lead to the destruction of vital ecosystems and contribute to climate change.

The GHG Mitigation Gap. Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To hold global warming below 2°C, we need to cut expected agricultural emissions in 2050 by 11 gigatons. This is the GHG mitigation gap.

A Sustainable Food Future: A Five-Course Menu of Solutions

To feed the world sustainably by 2050, we need to close these three gaps. This requires a comprehensive approach, with 22 solutions organized into a five-course menu: 1) reduce demand for food and other agricultural products; 2) increase food production without expanding agricultural land; 3) protect and restore natural ecosystems; 4) increase fish supply; 5) reduce GHG emissions from agricultural production.

First Course: Reduce Demand for Food and Other Agricultural Products

Minimizing Food Waste. About a third of all food produced globally gets wasted. Reducing food waste by 25% could close the food gap by 12%, the land gap by 27%, and the GHG mitigation gap by 15%.

Shifting to Sustainable Diets. Meat, especially beef, is resource-intensive to produce. Limiting the consumption of ruminant meat could significantly reduce the land and GHG mitigation gaps.

Avoiding Bioenergy Competition. Using food crops or dedicated land for bioenergy widens the food, land, and GHG mitigation gaps. Phasing out biofuel production on agricultural lands is essential.

Achieving Replacement-Level Fertility Rates. The food gap is primarily driven by population growth. Achieving replacement-level fertility rates worldwide could significantly reduce the land and GHG mitigation gaps.

Second Course: Increase Food Production Without Expanding Agricultural Land

Enhancing Livestock and Pasture Productivity. Boosting pasture productivity is vital given the projected growth in demand for animal-based foods and the significant land use by pastureland.

Advancing Crop Breeding. Future yield growth is crucial to meet demand. Advances in molecular biology could lead to significant yield gains.

Improving Soil and Water Management. Degraded soils affect a significant proportion of the world's cropland. Improving soil and water management practices, such as agroforestry, can boost crop yields.

Increasing Cropland Utilization. Planting and harvesting existing croplands more frequently can boost food production without requiring new land.

Adapting to Climate Change. Climate change threatens to reduce global crop yields. Adaptation strategies are essential to prevent a significant increase in the land gap.

Third Course: Protect and Restore Natural Ecosystems and Limit Agricultural Land-Shifting

Linking Productivity Gains with Ecosystem Protection. Productivity gains must be linked with efforts to protect natural ecosystems from conversion to agriculture.

Limiting Cropland Expansion to Low-Opportunity-Cost Lands. When cropland expansion is inevitable, it should be directed to lands with low environmental opportunity costs.

Reforesting Agricultural Lands with Limited Potential. Restoring abandoned or unproductive agricultural lands to forests or other natural habitats can offset inevitable agricultural expansion.

Conserving and Restoring Peatlands. Peatlands' conversion for agriculture releases significant GHGs. Restoring them to wetlands should be a high priority.

Fourth Course: Increase Fish Supply

Managing Wild Fisheries. Overfishing threatens the sustainable supply of fish. Implementing catch shares and community-based management systems can help.

Enhancing Aquaculture Productivity and Environmental Performance. As wild fish catches decline, aquaculture production needs to double to meet the projected increase in fish consumption.

Fifth Course: Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Production

Reducing Enteric Fermentation. Ruminant livestock significantly contributes to agricultural production emissions. New technologies can reduce enteric methane emissions.

Improving Manure Management. Emissions from managed manure contribute to agricultural production emissions. Improved manure management can greatly reduce emissions.

Reducing Fertilizer Emissions. Emissions from fertilizers are a significant source of agricultural production emissions. Increasing nitrogen use efficiency can reduce these emissions.

Adopting Emission-Reducing Rice Management and Varieties. Rice paddies contribute significantly to agricultural production emissions. Emission-reducing rice management and varieties can help.

Increasing Agricultural Energy Efficiency and Shifting to Non-Fossil Energy Sources. Fossil energy use in agriculture is a significant source of emissions. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting to renewable energy sources can help.

Implementing Options to Sequester Carbon in Soils. Efforts to sequester carbon in soils are important for mitigating agricultural emissions. This includes avoiding further loss of carbon from soils and developing innovative strategies for building carbon.

Towards a Sustainable Food Future

Closing the food, land, and GHG mitigation gaps to feed 10 billion people sustainably by 2050 is a monumental challenge. It will require significant changes in how we produce and consume food. Implementing all 22 solutions is not optional but essential.

Role of Technology in Sustainable Agriculture

From small, lightweight robots that perform monotonous tasks in the field to gene editing that slows down the ripening process in fruits, technology can play a crucial role in sustainable agriculture. These innovative solutions can increase efficiency, reduce waste, and help us make the best use of our existing agricultural land.

Importance of Equity in Achieving Food Security

Increasing food production alone is not enough. We also need to ensure equitable distribution of food so that it reaches those who need it most. This requires comprehensive social services, including food assistance, health and sanitation, education and training, and transition to non-agricultural rural employment.

As we strive towards a green economy and net zero emissions, the transformation of our food system is crucial. From regenerative agriculture and vertical farming to smart policy-making and individual actions, we can all contribute to a sustainable food future. Climate change is our reality, but with concerted efforts, we can feed the world without destroying it.